Principal, Advanced Analytics – Subscriber Forecasting

DIRECTV is transforming its video portfolio across Signature, BYOD, DTVi, and Genre Packs within an increasingly dynamic and competitive subscription landscape. Accurate, forward-looking subscriber forecasting is critical to enterprise planning, marketing investment, product strategy, and financial decision-making.The Principal, Advanced Analytics – Subscriber Forecasting is the senior leader responsible for architecting and governing DIRECTV’s end-to-end subscriber volume forecasting framework for designated products. This role owns the science behind forecasting Gross Adds, Churn, Reconnects, and Migrations—across run-rate expectations and scenario-based overlays.This leader combines deep expertise in time-series forecasting, survival modeling, and advanced statistical methods with automation and AI enablement capabilities to modernize DIRECTV’s forecasting ecosystem.Key Responsibilities:Enterprise Subscriber Volume ForecastingLead forecasting methodologies for Gross Adds, Churn, Reconnects, and Migrations across DIRECTV’s video portfolio.Develop integrated forecasting frameworks that reconcile acquisition inflow, tenure-based churn dynamics, reconnect behavior, and product migrations.Produce baseline (run-rate) forecasts and overlay models reflecting strategic initiatives, competitive shifts, seasonality, and macro impacts.Ensure forecasts are transparent, defensible, and aligned across Marketing, Finance, Product, and Executive Leadership.Advanced Forecasting MethodologiesApply and evolve advanced forecasting techniques, including:Time-series modeling (ARIMA, SARIMA, state-space models)Hierarchical forecasting frameworksSurvival analysis and hazard modeling for churn dynamicsCohort-based and tenure-based decay modelingMachine learning approaches (GBM, XGBoost, LSTM, ensemble methods)Design migration models to capture movement across packages, platforms, and pricing constructs.Incorporate industry trend signals, competitive dynamics, and structural shifts into forecasting assumptions.Continuously test, backcast, and refine models to improve accuracy and reduce bias.Tenure Dynamics & Behavioral ModelingDevelop survival curves and hazard functions to model churn behavior across tenure cohorts.Analyze lifecycle inflection points and structural breakpoints affecting retention and reconnect rates.Build cohort-level forecasting models that capture evolving subscriber behavior over time.Translate behavioral dynamics into actionable forecasting assumptions for enterprise planning.Scenario Planning & Overlay StrategyConstruct scenario frameworks that quantify impacts from:Pricing actionsPromotional intensityCompetitive entry or disruptionPackaging shiftsProduct transitionsLead sensitivity analysis and stress testing to inform executive decision-making.Provide structured, data-driven recommendations around forecast risks and opportunities.Automation & AI EnablementArchitect automated forecasting pipelines that reduce manual intervention and increase model scalability.Build reproducible workflows using Python, SQL, and modern data orchestration tools.Integrate AI and machine learning into forecasting workflows to enhance pattern detection, anomaly identification, and dynamic recalibration.Develop self-service dashboards and monitoring systems that track forecast accuracy and model drift.Modernize legacy forecasting processes into an AI-enabled forecasting ecosystem.Cross-Functional Leadership & GovernanceServe as the enterprise authority on subscriber volume forecasting methodology.Partner closely with Finance, Marketing, Product, Strategy, and Operations to align on assumptions and forecast outputs.Establish governance standards for forecasting accuracy, version control, and scenario documentation.Communicate complex modeling outputs to senior executives in a clear and structured manner.Qualifications:5 – 7 years required, 7+ years desired experience in forecasting, advanced analytics, econometrics, or quantitative modeling.Deep expertise in time-series forecasting, survival analysis, cohort modeling, and statistical inference.Demonstrated experience forecasting subscription-based product volumes.Strong proficiency in Python, SQL, and advanced analytics librariesExperience building automated modeling pipelines and scalable analytical systems.Familiarity with AI-driven forecasting enhancements and ensemble modeling approaches.Strong executive communication skills and ability to defend modeling assumptions.Advanced degree in Statistics, Economics, Data Science, Applied Mathematics, or related quantitative field preferred.Successful Profile:A successful Principal, Advanced Analytics – Subscriber Forecasting at DIRECTV:Brings scientific rigor and technical depth to enterprise forecasting.Anticipates structural shifts before they materially impact performance.Balances statistical sophistication with practical business applicability.Modernizes forecasting through automation and AI integration.Establishes DIRECTV as a best-in-class organization in subscription volume forecasting science.May require a background check due to job duties requiring routine access to DIRECTV and DIRECTV customer’s proprietary data. Qualified applicants with arrest and conviction will be considered for employment in accordance with local ordinances and state law.This is a remote position that can be located anywhere in the contiguous United States. #LI-RemoteA career with DIRECTV comes with big rewards: DIRECTV's compensation structure is designed to be market-competitive and fully supports efforts to attract and retain employees. It is the company's policy to offer pay that is competitive with other employers in the local market. Our salary ranges are determined by role, level, and location.The Base Salary range displayed below reflects the minimum and maximum target salary for each of DIRECTV's 4 (four) US Labor Market Zones. Within the range, individual pay is determined by work location and additional factors, including job-related skills, experience, and relevant education or training.DIRECTV WAGE ZONES: $134,363 - $244,036Low (N1): $134,363 - $201,595Mid (N2): $141,435 - $212,205High (N3): $155,579 - $233,426Top (N4): $162,650 - $244,036Click HERE to review information on some of the largest Designated Market Areas (DMAs). Your recruiter can share more about the specific salary range for your preferred location during the hiring process.Please note that the salary ranges reflect base salary only and do not include bonus or benefits - when you consider all of these together, it represents a pretty impressive total compensation package.Apply today!Fair Chance Ordinance Notice for Los Angeles County applying for jobs at DIRECTVCompliance Notice Regarding Use of Automated Decision-Making Tools in Hiring Process

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