Lead Forecaster for VR & IDD (Economist 4)

Initial Posting Date: 07/30/2025 Application Deadline: 08/27/2025 Agency: Department of Human Services Salary Range: $7,718 - $11,373 Position Type: Employee Position Title: Lead Forecaster for VR & IDD (Economist 4) Job Description: The Oregon Department of Human Services is proud to be an Equal Opportunity Employer. We are guided by our Equity North Star and our vision for a positive RiSE organizational culture that advances equity and diversity. We encourage applications from members of historically underrepresented racial/ethnic groups, women, individuals with disabilities, veterans, LGBTQIA2S+ community members, and others to help us achieve our vision of a diverse and inclusive community. Opportunity awaits! Make a meaningful difference in the lives of Oregonians by advancing the mission of the Oregon Department of Human Services and the Oregon Health Authority to support those in need. Join our team as a Lead Forecaster for Vocational Rehab & Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities (Economist 4) in the Office of Forecasting, Research and Analysis (OFRA) Our team investigates and analyzes the intersection of public policy and service demand, as well as the economic and policy decisions that impact one in four Oregonians. Our findings help shape evidence-based budgets for the two largest agencies in Oregon state government. This position will specifically focus on forecasting for Vocational Rehabilitation and Intellectual/Developmental Disabilities programs. Summary of Duties As a Lead Forecaster you will: Assume lead role in conceptualizing, developing, and reporting complex “environmental” forecasts, including regional, socio-economic, policy, and cultural trends that are likely to impact DHS and/or OHA, their clients, and partners. Develop methods to incorporate regional information into the caseload forecasts. Research concepts and methods of forecasting in the public and private sectors of other states. Develop, validate, and implement new approaches for forecasting, including statistical models and other quantitative approaches. Develop/refine a statewide system of information gathering, integration, and dissemination to enable forecasting; specific methodologies to implement forecasting; policies and principles to improve the forecasting function; Work with the Department of Human Services, Oregon Health Authority, Legislative Fiscal Office and Department of Administrative Services, and Governor’s Office staff to isolate and define critical components affecting client caseload; conceptualize and develop complex forecasting methodologies; and estimate the impact of client caseload policy changes on multi-billion-dollar programs, Collaborate with recognized experts inside and outside the department to research forecasting methodologies. Develop unique and original solutions to solve complex issues for each forecasted population. Requires expertise in statistical modeling and ability to modify forecasting models using ingenuity and originality to resolve forecasting issues. Develop in-depth knowledge of DHS and OHA programs and policies and their potential impact on client caseload forecasts, which have multi-billion-dollar impacts. Minimum Qualifications A Master's degree in economics or a related field and four years of experience doing economic or related research or econometric forecasting; OR A Ph.D. in economics or a related field and one year of experience doing economic or related research. A background in statistics for the social sciences that can be applied to the development of projections for human services is critical for success in this position. Special consideration will be given to those with a proven track record of developing and modifying statistical models from real-world, imperfect data, and those who have a background in the analysis of state-based administrative data or experience with human services. Combinations of experience with forecasting, analysis of government data, and public policy will be considered in concert. Essential Attributes We are looking for candidates with: Develop forecasts and projections: Skilled in creating accurate, data-driven forecasts and projections to support strategic planning and anticipate future trends. Analyze and validate data: Adept at analyzing complex datasets and applying validation techniques to ensure data accuracy, consistency, and reliability, withhands-on experience using data analysis and querying software such as SAS, SPSS, R, and SQL Server Management Studio. Explain data and projections to a non-technical audience: Effectively communicates complex data insights and forecasts in clear, accessible language for diverse, non-technical audiences. Understand the Nature of Public Policy and Caseload Dynamics: Possesses a strong understanding of public policy impacts and caseload trends, integrating this knowledge into data analysis and forecasting. Forecasting and/or Other Types of Predictive Analytics Experienced in applying forecasting and predictive analytics techniques to model trends, evaluate outcomes, and inform decision-making. Data Preparation & Management: Ability to work with complicated and imperfect real-world data, especially the acquisition and cleanup of the products of relational databases. Data Visualization: Proficient in using Excel and related tools to create clear, informative graphs, charts, and visual displays that effectively communicate data insights. Project Coordination: Experienced in coordinating complex research projects, including managing timelines, resources, and cross-functional teams Attention all candidates! A cover letter is required . Clearly describe how you meet the minimum qualifications and essential attributes in your application materials. Your application materials will determine if you are selected to move forward in the selection process. Please include detailed work and education history. Please make sure your application materials, resume and job history, are clearly outlined as this information will be used to determine your starting salary range. Note: Your resume and cover letter may be uploaded in the Resume/CV field on the online application. The use of outside resources such as Artificial Intelligence software during applicant skill assessments, examinations, and/or interviews is prohibited unless otherwise stated by the hiring agency. Unauthorized use of outside resources during the hiring process will result in disqualification. Working Conditions The Office of Forecasting Research and Analysis currently works in a hybrid remote environment, with dedicated office space and one-day-per-week in the office. Waiving the in-office requirement and allowing a fully remote alternative will be considered for those who are eminently qualified. Forecasters are expected to work independently with minimal supervision. Work with data, technical information, and computer systems for long periods of time. Operate a keyboard with repetitive and constant finger and wrist movements for long periods of time. Background Checks and Requirements If selected as a finalist, we will conduct a criminal history and background check. Adverse criminal history or background check may lead to disqualification. Additional background check information. The Oregon Department of Human Services does not offer visa sponsorship. Within three days of hire, you will be required to complete the US Department of Homeland Security’s I-9 form confirming authorization to work in the United States. ODHS will use E-Verify to confirm that you are authorized to work in the United States. Benefits ODHS Employee Resource Group communities that promote shared learning. Cost of Living Adjustments. Annual salary increases (until you reach the top of the listed salary range). Amazing benefits package . Possible eligibility for the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program . Employment Preference Veterans’ preference: Veterans’ preference information . How to submit your Veteran documents for preference . Please do not attach your Veterans’ preference documentation in the Resume/CV field of your application. General Information This is a permanent, full-time position and is a Management Service, Non-Supervisory position and is not represented by a union. This recruitment may be used to fill future vacancies in the same classification. Contact Information We invite you to contact the recruiter for accommodation requests under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), application questions or job-specific questions. The recruiter for this position is Teresa Camacho De La Torre. If you contact the recruiter, please include the job requisition number: REQ- 184511 . Email: [email protected] Phone (call or text): 971-286-0701. Originally posted on Himalayas